Run for the Roses

[UncleMoneybags]

Since there were no pick threads that I could see without looking in all of them I figured I would start one.

If you would, please post your picks and reasons why you like a horse. We can look back after the fact and see who was on the money and who shouldn't quit their day job.

I'll go first. I like Master David. The morning line is 12-1. That would be my minimum. If he is bet down under that, I'll pass. I can't predict public sentiment when it comes to horse racing. I still feel the burn of the Stephen got even craze a few years ago. Don't make your bets early boys and girls.

The reason I like him is because the last two races I've seen he has run well but in the Wood Tapit just had more that day. The extra distance to me doesn't seem like a problem. I wish one of his races would have been at Churchill if not just to get a feel. We'll see if the Derby Day crowd rattles him or not.

I may do an exacta box with him and Tapit. Other exotics would include the pick 4.

If I'm off base on Master David please tell me why I'm an idiot for backing him.

 

[trytrytry]

that is a fine choice. His trainer had the two favorites last year and every move was watched and I dont think bobby F. had a good time (especailly when he went 2nd and 3rd!). This year he is under the radar screen. His horse is moving pretty good and no little setbacks which is great. HE has more than 2 races this year which is GREAT! Should see thgat 12-1 your hoping for maybe 13-1.

I like and exacta Tapit over Read the footnotes, Lion Heart, Pollards vision, Friends LAke and Castleton. And Castleton over Tapit. At least that as Im sure Ill have another dozen combinations, oaks, doubles, pick 4's etc. etc.

Good luck with MAster DAvid!!! Enjoy the race. I will be on the infield!

 

[oldmanTED]

I'm currently holding a future wager on Wimbeldon at 12-1 which I placed after winning with him in the Louisiana Derby. Although it seemed clear to me prior to the race that he was not fully cranked up for the Santa Anita Derby, his performance was a bit baffling until I heard Baffert explain today how he was working him prior to that race and how he currently is tight, happy and doing well at Churchill. Plus, Bailey had a choice of four of the horses he has already ridden and chose to ride Wimbledon, who he has never ridden.

Now, that being said, the final prep that impressed me the most was Tapit winning the Wood Memorial while still recovering from being ill. His trainer is extremely conservative and said today that he is fully recovered. In the Wood, he was in hand much of the way while making his move down the backstretch and the far turn. Being healthier, and with most likely a lively pace, given the post position draw today, I think he moves up off his last performance.

I plan on picking up a form on Friday, and unless I see something that changes my mind, I'll stay with these two.

For those who may not know, you can download a Kentucky Derby past performance pdf file for free from the Daily Racing Form site at www.drf.com and look for the link on the left hand side of the front page for "Races of the Week". They should have it up either by Thursday or Friday. You will need the Acrobat Reader. If that is the only race you plan to play, no sense buying a form. Also, most of the Churchill racing program for Saturday will be telecast live on ESPN and ESPN2 followed by NBC for the Derby. Starts early morning with "Breakfast at Churchill". Best of luck everyone.

[This message was edited by oldmanTED on April 28, 2004 at 09:04 PM.]

 

[UncleMoneybags]

trytrytry and oldmanted,

Thank you for your comments. I used to play the ponies quite a bit a few years ago. Sadly, I'm a little out of practice. I'm going to try to get back into it on a limited basis. I still need to do a lot of work to hone my selection skills particularly watching more races.

One of my favorite strategies was that I hope still works is to automatically throw Pat Day out of any graded stakes race.

trytrytry,

Do you believe in friends lake that much? I only ask because he was one of 2 that I threw out as not having any chance to get in the money. I also notice that you seemed to think that St. Averil could stir things up and I'm starting to like him a little bit. My biggest ? is do you think he can go the extra distance?

 

[Cerveza]

early thoughts:

I think LIMEHOUSE is a throw out due to the rail draw. He's going to be shuffled way back in this giant field and will be looking at too much traffic.

POLLARD'S VISION got a nice draw. With late running types on either side, he should get a clean break and be in excellent position early.

You can safely toss any Derby entry that started racing as a 3 yr old - 2 yr old experience is necessary. See ya SONG OF THE SWORD.

I am going nowhere near ACTION THIS DAY. He has proven to be a highly overrated 3 yr old after peaking in last yrs Juvenile.

The runner's I've yet to eliminate early on are:

LION HEART
But does he need the lead and if so, can he sustain it?
MASTER DAVID
I'm concerned about the distance.
ST AVERIL
Love the horse, love the odds.
IMPERIALISM
Will be closing fast.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
Looks the best, but why bet the favorite when it's this wide open?
READ THE FOOTNOTES
His Fountain of Youth victory was awesome.
SMARTY JONES
Worried about Elliot being too excited and failing to show the required patience.
POLLARD'S VISION
Would just adore an off track. Might not need it.
BORREGO
If it's an off track only.

 

[60feetheat]

I will add that first time jocks dont win this race.Smarty jones a complete throw out.

 

[slapshot]

ive got limehouse 60-1
cliffs edge 17-1
tapit 21-1
smarty jones 18-1
st averil 20-1

go limehouse

gl

 

[UncleMoneybags]

Cerveza,

Your comments are on the mark with me. Another thing concerning me is the weather
I don't want to go bust with a horse that can't handle the slop should it rain Friday or Saturday.
Two horses I eliminated without regard to the conditions were Minister Eric (because of the Pat Day factor) and Action This Day (for reasons much similar to what Cerveza said).

I don't know about you guys but I'm starting to get the pre-Derby jitters.

Good Luck All

 

[UncleMoneybags]

60feetheat,

I think Smarty Jones is another Stephen Got Even in the making. Only difference is Smarty is starting off lower instead of ending up there.

slapshot,

You have some decent prices on some of those contenders. Good Luck, my friend.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Read The Footnotes.And I am hoping for around 20-1.

 

[mhk]

I have The Cliff's Edge in a future @ 8-1, loved the way he ran at Churchill (2-2). Thought about that being my only play, provided you guys don't talk me into making others.. gl guys..

 

[Cerveza]

Judge - it's only thursday but READ THE FOOTNOTES is begining to suck me in as well.

 

[UncleMoneybags]

Less than 10 hours till post and here is what I want so far:

Master David to win

Exacta box Tapit, Master David

Pick 4
7th race Etoile Montante
8th race Cat fighter, Bear fan
9th race Honor in War, Sweet Return

10th race Tapit, Master David

 

[G.MONEY]

MY 4 HORSE'S ARE....POLLARDS VISION, FRIENDS LAKE, LIMEHOUSE,CLIFFS EDGE.....

 

[ferrarif-1fan]

Still like #6 Friends Lake

 

[Giliman]

$2 ex. box...lion heart-borrego-cliff's-smarty

plus a trifecta using those four with pro prado and castltedale..